MLB Best Bets Today July 10:
It is a very busy day on the diamond today with 17 games, as we’ll have doubleheaders in St. Louis and Chicago after rainouts yesterday. The doubleheader games are the only day games, though, as the rest of the schedule will avoid the hottest parts of the day and play at night. Based on the weather conditions, it could be a good day for offense, with the winds blowing out on hot, humid evenings at a few parks.
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Washington Nationals at New York Mets (-192, 9.5)
7:10 p.m. ET
Patrick Corbin and Luis Severino are the listed starters for Wednesday night’s NL East matchup between the Nationals and Mets. This looks like a pretty hefty price on the Mets in my opinion. Severino threw six shutout innings against the Cubs with 10 strikeouts on June 23, but he’s allowed 17 runs on 25 hits in his other three starts dating back to June 18. Outside of that 10-strikeout effort, Sevy has only struck out nine guys in his other four starts dating back to June 13.
That Cubs outing looks like quite an outlier right now. He’s allowed seven homers over his last five starts. This is a guy that threw 89.1 innings last season, 102 in 2022, 6 in 2021, and zero in 2020. I can’t help but wonder if maybe he’s hitting a wall heading into the All-Star Break, as he and many others could definitely use a bit of a hiatus.
He allowed four Barrels in his last start against the Pirates and had allowed nine of his 18 Barrels over his last five starts. The command profile is starting to wane a bit. And the Nationals offense is picking it up, as they have a .331 wOBA here in July with a 114 wRC+.
The other thing I like for the Nationals is that the Mets pen is up against it a bit. Edwin Diaz, Dedniel Nunez, and Reed Garrett have all worked three of the last four games. Adam Ottavino threw 20 pitches last night. Washington’s bullpen is a whole lot fresher.
I realize the notion of backing Corbin is pretty scary, but he’s kept his team in the game more often than not lately. Since May 3, Corbin has allowed three or fewer earned runs in nine of his 12 starts. All I’m looking for here is Corbin to keep the team afloat. I think the Nationals can get to Severino and could have a late-game bullpen advantage given the Mets’ workload. Again, at +160, that team is going to lose more often than they’ll win, but I think this price is too high given all the factors at play.
Pick: Nationals +160
Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox (-192, 10)
7:10 p.m. ET
It will be a hot one at Fenway Park tonight as the A’s and Red Sox get together. First-pitch temps will be in the low-to-mid 80s with tons of humidity and a high dewpoint as the remnants of Hurricane Beryl make their way into the northeast part of the country. The winds are expected to be blowing out towards the Green Monster at a 15 mph clip.
All of that seems bad for fly ball, pitch-to-contact hurler JP Sears. Sears comes in with a 4.74 ERA, 4.63 xERA, and a 4.78 FIP over his 95 innings of work. I mentioned this before and it did backfire on me the last time I took Boston against a lefty, but I have to think their high K% in this split is going to regress to the mean soon and Sears is a guy with a 16.7% K%. He doesn’t miss a lot of bats. The Red Sox are 15th in wOBA against LHP at .324 over the last 30 days despite a 29.6% K%.
Sears has worked 56 innings on the road this season and has a 4.82 ERA with a 5.14 FIP. He has allowed a .258/.319/.484 slash, as he’s allowed 27 extra-base hits including 10 home runs. If you’re looking for a home run player prop, note that Sears has allowed nine of those 10 homers to righties and has allowed a .534 SLG on the road to righties in 181 PA.
We’re paying a bit of vig on this one, but Fenway Park is a very tough park for opposing hurlers, especially fly ball guys like Sears on a hot night.
Pick: Red Sox 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (-135)
Texas Rangers (-130, 9.5) at Los Angeles Angels
9:38 p.m. ET
Are the Rangers starting to figure it out? They’ve run their winning streak out to five games and have won seven of their last nine as they take on the Angels in search of securing a sweep before heading to Houston for the weekend. Michael Lorenzen and Griffin Canning are the slated starters here.
Lorenzen was the guy who started the five-game streak with five shutout innings against the Rays back on July 5. He did walk five, but was able to work around it. His ugly 62/40 K/BB ratio is the primary reason why he has a 5.06 FIP with a 3.21 ERA, but he draws an Angels lineup that has just a .250 wOBA here in the month of July with a .207/.275/.272 slash.
Lorenzen isn’t getting a whole lot of chases this season, but he’s found a way to keep his team in the game in the majority of his starts and I would anticipate he’s able to do that here again with the paltry Angels lineup.
If nothing else, he’s got a good chance at some run support today. Canning has a 4.87 ERA with a 4.85 xERA and a 5.28 FIP in his 98 innings of work. He’s been better at home than he’s been on the road, but he’s still allowed a .332 wOBA and has a 4.37 ERA with a 5.17 FIP at home. He’s allowed four earned runs in four of his last five starts and the Rangers are really starting to swing it well.
Texas is fifth with a .356 wOBA in the month of July. They’re batting .300 with a .351 OBP and a .480 SLG. That is a big contrast from the Angels, who are the worst offense in baseball this month. I’ve been waiting for this Texas team to take off and it seems like they may be in the midst of doing just that. They’ll have to turn to some other relievers tonight, but it becomes a game of follow the leader with how effective everybody else has been and I think Bruce Bochy can navigate those waters.
These are two teams with very different vibes right now as well. The Rangers are trying to make up for lost time after getting off to a slow start. The Angels are 1-7 in July and can’t wait for the All-Star Break to get here as they go through another losing season.
Pick: Rangers -130
